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Market & Investment Risk Insights (Global Equities)

Q4 and full year 2025 market analysis: Geopolitics, volatility, factor performance & Europe

2025 was arguably the most geopolitically consequential year since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Yet, it now feels like it may have been only a dress rehearsal for what is coming in 2026. At the same time, equity markets seemed to remain immune from the turmoil. The US was mainly focused on the AI trade and potential rate cuts (with the exception of the period surrounding “Liberation Day”) and non-US markets were driven by more favorable interest rate environments, trade wars and a weaker dollar, and a renewed focus on defense.

Volatility remained unusually low, which at least for the short term meant that investors felt they could invest without the prospect of losing tomorrow what they put in today. With some exceptions, such as a strong preference for high volatility for most of the year, Axioma model style factors behaved as expected, although a few produced returns larger in magnitude than risk predictions suggested.

Register for the on-demand videos and slides to understand what is driving portfolio performance.

  1. Geopolitics and Macroeconomics (15 minutes)
  2. The Risk Environment (35 minutes)
  3. Factor Performance (25 minutes)
  4. Spotlight on Europe (30 minutes)

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